Dorm Lounge Discussion

So Twitter is... atwitter... about Justin Amash's possible candidacy for President. He's launched an exploratory committee to run as a 3rd party candidate. The reaction among Biden supporters is mostly freak-out. Comparisons are being made to Nader and Stein, people saying he'll hand the election to Trump. I want to hear your thoughts, but I'll give mine first.

I admire what Amash has been doing these past few months, standing up for Constitutional norms and basic decency. If it were a choice between him and Trump, I would take Amash in a nanosecond. But policy-wise, Amash is *several* bridges too far for me on all kinds of levels, and I'm a center-left voter, not a hard-core progressive! Nader and Stein drew votes from the left wing of the Democratic party. Gary Johnson probably drew some Dem-leaning independents away from Hillary Clinton, but Hillary was uniquely unpopular among independents. I don't think Biden will have a big problem with that group, and Amash won't be acceptable to Progressive Democrats. I don't think he attracts many folks at all who are already OK with voting for Democrats.

Who *will* Amash appeal to? Two groups, IMO:

1) Never-Trump True Conservatives (NTTCs). Many of these voters are considering or have even committed to voting for Biden. Amash might be a tempting alternative, and he might pull some of them. They could be a concern. However, I think many will still vote for Biden because they are a practical bunch. They know Amash won’t win, and they fervently believe another Trump term will mean the end of the American Experiment. They were worried about maybe having to vote for Bernie, but they can live with Joe Biden. Getting Trump out is their #1 priority. (Although NTTC author of this link thinks Amash is a danger to Biden.) They care more about principals of good government (as they interpret it) and the survival of our political system than any one policy.

2) Republicans who are disillusioned with/ scared of/ tired of Trump, but for whom pro-life is their #1 issue. They feel deeply that they *cannot* vote for a pro choice candidate. Without Amash (or someone similar) on the ballot, they hold their nose and vote for Trump or they stay home. They do not under any circumstance vote for a Democrat. Amash gives them a legitimate alternative. Yes, it’s only a protest vote. Yes, they are smart enough to know that, but so did Stein voters, and there were enough of them to change the outcome of the election. I think Justin Amash will pull a decent number of strongly pro-life women, who hate the kids in cages, the misogyny, the disastrous Corona Virus response, but who put all that on the scale against abortion and come up even. These women (and some men) were NEVER going to be Biden voters. They subtract from Trump.

So my opinion? Amash helps Biden more than Trump. (Or hurts Trump more than Biden? Same thing, I guess.) Where Amash can cause damage to Democrats is in the Senate races. Both my hypothetical Amash-friendly groups are likely ticket-splitters, voting for Biden or Amash for President, but a Republican senate candidate, if one is on their ballot. This is not to be taken lightly if you care about the direction of the Senate, which you should.

What do you think? Agree or disagree? Do you think Amash will run ultimately or not? (I'm not sure. I think he'll have a hard time getting press coverage during the COVID crisis.)